Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 35

Bastia–Niort

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'BastiaK. Van Den Kerkhof
54'NiortOumar Ngom (assist: A. Sagna)
71'BastiaB. Santelli (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bastia		Niort
20	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
377	Passes	509
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bastia 1.95 · Niort 0.68. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Bastia 20 · Niort 12; on target 6 and 2.
Niort kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.40

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Bastia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Bastia, 0.81 for Niort.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Bastia win or draw).
These values were computed from 341 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bastia to win66.5%

Draw21.1%

Niort to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bastia win or draw87.6%

12 — any result other than a draw78.9%

X2 — draw or Niort win33.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bastia lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time40.2%

Niort lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bastia ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Niort ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 341 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bastia: at least 14Actual: 13
Niort: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Bastia: at least 5Actual: 4
Niort: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bastia score1.95

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Niort concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Niort score0.68

Attack: Niort score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bastia's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.1%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 341 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.