Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Nimes–Valenciennes

3–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Costières, Nîmes

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NimesR. Said (assist: M. Tchokounte)
44'ValenciennesI. Hamache (assist: Y. Haouari)
61'ValenciennesA. Boutoutaou (assist: S. Boudraa)
65'NimesB. Poulain
70'ValenciennesA. Boutoutaou (assist: Y. Haouari)
71'NimesN. Benezet (assist: J. N'Guessan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nimes		Valenciennes
15	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
498	Passes	379
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nimes 1.49 · Valenciennes 1.11. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Nimes 15 · Valenciennes 8; on target 6 and 4.
Nimes kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

R. Landry→

4.79

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Nimes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Nimes, 1.03 for Valenciennes.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Nimes win or draw).
These values were computed from 331 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nimes to win45.1%

Draw28.8%

Valenciennes to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Nimes lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time45.4%

Valenciennes lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Nimes ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Valenciennes ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 331 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nimes: at least 12Actual: 15
Valenciennes: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Nimes: at least 4Actual: 7
Valenciennes: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nimes score1.49

Attack: Nimes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valenciennes concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valenciennes score1.11

Attack: Valenciennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nimes concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.6%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.