Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Amiens–Sochaux

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'AmiensG. Ilenikhena

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amiens		Sochaux
13	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
378	Passes	500
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amiens 1.24 · Sochaux 1.37. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Amiens 13 · Sochaux 6; on target 6 and 3.
Sochaux kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

W. Toulliou→

3.06

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Sochaux to win”. Second comes “Amiens to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Amiens, 1.37 for Sochaux.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 331 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amiens to win35.6%

Draw27.8%

Sochaux to win36.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Amiens win or draw63.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Sochaux win64.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Amiens lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time45.1%

Sochaux lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Amiens ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Sochaux ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 331 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amiens: at least 13Actual: 13
Sochaux: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Amiens: at least 4Actual: 6
Sochaux: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amiens score1.24

Attack: Amiens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sochaux's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sochaux score1.37

Attack: Sochaux score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Amiens's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.1%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 331 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.