Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Paris FC–Nimes

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Paris FCI. Kebbal (assist: J. Lefort)
81'Paris FCM. Chahiri (assist: I. Kebbal)
84'Paris FCI. Kebbal (assist: S. Chergui)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Nimes
17	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	12
3	Offsides	5
49%	Possession	51%
398	Passes	408
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.71 · Nimes 0.96. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris FC 17 · Nimes 10; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

A. Perreau Niel→

4.44

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Paris FC, 0.95 for Nimes.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 311 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win52.3%

Draw26.7%

Nimes to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris FC win or draw79.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Nimes win47.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Paris FC lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time45.4%

Nimes lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Nimes ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 311 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 12Actual: 8
Nimes: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 7
Nimes: at least 3Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.71

Attack: Paris FC score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Nimes concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nimes score0.96

Attack: Nimes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 311 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.