Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Niort–Caen

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade René Gaillard, Niort

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'CaenR. Thomas
32'CaenG. Kilama (own goal)
55'NiortAnthony Mandrea (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Niort		Caen
7	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
451	Passes	382
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Niort 0.92 · Caen 1.59. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Niort 7 · Caen 12; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

W. Toulliou→

3.19

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Caen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Niort, 1.47 for Caen.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (X2 — draw or Caen win).
These values were computed from 311 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Niort to win24.7%

Draw28.2%

Caen to win47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Niort win or draw52.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Caen win75.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Niort lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time45.6%

Caen lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Niort ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Caen ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 311 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Niort: at least 11Actual: 13
Caen: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Niort: at least 3Actual: 5
Caen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Niort score0.92

Attack: Niort score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Caen score1.59

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Niort concede 39% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–111.5%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 311 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.