Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 25

Paris FC–Niort

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 February 2023 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'Paris FCM. Guilavogui (penalty)
86'Paris FCM. Guilavogui (assist: K. Mbala)
90+3'Paris FCI. Kebbal (assist: M. Bernauer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Niort
16	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
575	Passes	404
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.46 · Niort 0.83. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris FC 16 · Niort 7; on target 8 and 4.
Paris FC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

W. Toulliou→

3.42

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.8%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Paris FC, 0.83 for Niort.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 240 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win55.8%

Draw26.4%

Niort to win17.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris FC lead at half-time32.9%

Level at half-time48.3%

Niort lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Niort ahead67.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 240 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 15
Niort: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 5
Niort: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.46

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Niort concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Niort score0.83

Attack: Niort score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%1–113.3%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.