Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 15

Sivasspor–Galatasaray

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 December 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BG Grup 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivas

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'GalatasarayMetehan Baltacı · red card
25'SivassporG. Rodrigues
36'GalatasarayYunus Akgün (assist: Berkan Kutlu)
45+9'GalatasarayV. Osimhen (penalty)
53'GalatasarayBarış Alper Yılmaz (assist: Yunus Akgün)
90+1'SivassporBekir Turaç Böke

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Galatasaray
11	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
386	Passes	390
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 0.94 · Galatasaray 2.14. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Sivasspor 11 · Galatasaray 16; on target 5 and 8.

Unavailable players

Sivasspor

M. Albayrakout · Knee Injury

Galatasaray

Abdülkerim Bardakcıout · Ankle Injury
Ismail Jakobsout · Knee Injury
M. Icardiout · Knee Injury
K. Ayhandoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

T. Doman→

3.86

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.6%: “Galatasaray to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Sivasspor, 2.69 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (X2 — draw or Galatasaray win).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win9.7%

Draw15.7%

Galatasaray to win74.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: N. Sonko Sundberg)

16	Fouls	8

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sivasspor win or draw25.4%

12 — any result other than a draw84.3%

X2 — draw or Galatasaray win90.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sivasspor lead at half-time4.5%

Level at half-time30.8%

Galatasaray lead at half-time64.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level35.4%

12 — not level at half-time69.2%

X2 — level or Galatasaray ahead95.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 16
Galatasaray: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Galatasaray: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals72.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score0.94

Attack: Sivasspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score2.14

Attack: Galatasaray score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.9%0–29.4%1–39.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 824 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.