Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Adana Demirspor–Fatih Karagümrük

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 4 March 2024 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'Adana DemirsporM. Balotelli (penalty)
90+8'Fatih KaragümrükF. Ceccherini · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Fatih Karagümrük
13	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
323	Passes	367
247	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 1.78 · Fatih Karagümrük 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Adana Demirspor 13 · Fatih Karagümrük 12; on target 5 and 1.

Unavailable players

Adana Demirspor

J. Rodriguezout · red-card suspension

Fatih Karagümrük

R. Mendesout · red-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:05.

Referee

M. Erdoğan→

3.73

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Adana Demirspor to win”. Second comes “Fatih Karagümrük to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Adana Demirspor, 1.24 for Fatih Karagümrük.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 590 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win41.4%

Draw27.7%

Fatih Karagümrük to win30.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time41.3%

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Fatih Karagümrük ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 589 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 11Actual: 17
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 4Actual: 7
Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score1.78

Attack: Adana Demirspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.13

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.7%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.