Championship · England · Regular Season - 46

Norwich–Blackpool

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 8 May 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'BlackpoolM. Rogers

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Blackpool
28	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
521	Passes	291
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.84 · Blackpool 0.84. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Norwich 28 · Blackpool 12; on target 5 and 6.
Norwich kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

J. Bell→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.7%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Norwich, 1.05 for Blackpool.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Norwich win or draw).
These values were computed from 540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win63.7%

Draw20.8%

Blackpool to win15.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw84.5%

12 — any result other than a draw79.2%

X2 — draw or Blackpool win36.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Norwich lead at half-time50.4%

Level at half-time38.3%

Blackpool lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Blackpool ahead49.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 10Actual: 11
Blackpool: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Norwich: at least 6Actual: 10
Blackpool: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.84

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackpool concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackpool score0.84

Attack: Blackpool score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.0%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 540 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 45 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.