Championship · England · Regular Season - 45

Reading–Wigan

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading, Berkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'WiganC. Hughes (assist: J. McClean)
90+3'ReadingY. Meïté (assist: Naby Sarr)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Reading		Wigan
21	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
396	Passes	313
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Reading 1.12 · Wigan 1.01. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Reading 21 · Wigan 11; on target 5 and 4.
Reading kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Davies→

3.76

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Reading to win”. Second comes “Wigan to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Reading, 1.15 for Wigan.
The highest double chance value is 69.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 528 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Reading to win36.2%

Draw30.1%

Wigan to win33.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Reading lead at half-time31.0%

Level at half-time48.0%

Wigan lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Reading ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Wigan ahead69.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 528 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Reading: at least 10Actual: 7
Wigan: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Reading: at least 3Actual: 13
Wigan: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Reading score1.12

Attack: Reading score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wigan's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wigan score1.01

Attack: Wigan score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Reading concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.5%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.