Championship · England · Regular Season - 44

Birmingham–Blackpool

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'BlackpoolI. Poveda (assist: M. Rogers)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Birmingham		Blackpool
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	7
2	Offsides	5
50%	Possession	50%
304	Passes	307
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Birmingham 1.55 · Blackpool 0.95. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Birmingham 16 · Blackpool 12; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

K. Stroud→

5.28

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Birmingham, 1.05 for Blackpool.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Birmingham win or draw).
These values were computed from 513 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Birmingham to win42.8%

Draw29.3%

Blackpool to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Birmingham lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time39.5%

Blackpool lead at half-time13.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Birmingham ahead or level87.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Blackpool ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 513 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Birmingham: at least 11Actual: 15
Blackpool: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Birmingham: at least 5Actual: 6
Blackpool: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Birmingham score1.55

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackpool concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackpool score0.95

Attack: Blackpool score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–011.5%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.