Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Reading–Luton

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 19 April 2023 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading, Berkshire

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'ReadingAndy Carroll (assist: F. Azeez)
56'ReadingAndy Carroll · red card
80'LutonC. Morris (assist: E. Adebayo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Reading		Luton
10	Shots	19
2	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
253	Passes	531
165	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Reading 0.79 · Luton 1.40. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Reading 10 · Luton 19; on target 2 and 6.
Luton kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

T. Robinson→

4.29

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Luton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Reading, 1.46 for Luton.
The highest double chance value is 82.2% (X2 — draw or Luton win).
These values were computed from 511 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Reading to win17.8%

Draw28.2%

Luton to win54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Reading lead at half-time18.2%

Level at half-time46.7%

Luton lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Reading ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Luton ahead81.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 511 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Reading: at least 9Actual: 10
Luton: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Reading: at least 3Actual: 2
Luton: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Reading score0.79

Attack: Reading score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Luton concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Luton score1.40

Attack: Luton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reading concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.5%1–113.8%0–212.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.