Championship · England · Regular Season - 43

Stoke City–Wigan

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 18 April 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'WiganW. Keane (assist: Max Power)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stoke City		Wigan
9	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
531	Passes	303
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stoke City 1.72 · Wigan 0.64. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Stoke City 9 · Wigan 7; on target 3 and 2.
Stoke City kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

T. Nield→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “Stoke City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Stoke City, 0.85 for Wigan.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — Stoke City win or draw).
These values were computed from 501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stoke City to win56.4%

Draw25.9%

Wigan to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stoke City lead at half-time49.5%

Level at half-time41.0%

Wigan lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Stoke City ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Wigan ahead50.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 501 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 17
Wigan: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 7
Wigan: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stoke City score1.72

Attack: Stoke City score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Wigan's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wigan score0.64

Attack: Wigan score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stoke City concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–012.9%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.