Championship · England · Regular Season - 42

Blackpool–Wigan

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bloomfield Road, Blackpool, Lancashire

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'BlackpoolJ. Yates (assist: K. Anderson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Blackpool		Wigan
5	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
315	Passes	518
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Blackpool 1.33 · Wigan 1.02. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Blackpool 5 · Wigan 14; on target 2 and 2.
Wigan kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Bramall→

3.42

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Blackpool to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Blackpool, 1.05 for Wigan.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (1X — Blackpool win or draw).
These values were computed from 491 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Blackpool to win45.2%

Draw28.5%

Wigan to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,543 of 3,253 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Blackpool win or draw73.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Wigan win54.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Blackpool lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time44.5%

Wigan lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Blackpool ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Wigan ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 491 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Blackpool: at least 10Actual: 12
Wigan: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Blackpool: at least 4Actual: 3
Wigan: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,462 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Blackpool score1.33

Attack: Blackpool score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wigan's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wigan score1.02

Attack: Wigan score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Blackpool concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–011.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 491 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.