Championship · England · Regular Season - 41

Preston–Reading

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'PrestonT. Cannon (assist: Álvaro Fernández)
83'ReadingK. Ehibhatiomhan (assist: N. Guinness-Walker)
90+2'PrestonB. Potts (assist: A. Hughes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Reading
23	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
512	Passes	271
438	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.38 · Reading 0.90. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Preston 23 · Reading 8; on target 7 and 3.
Preston kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

J. Busby→

3.71

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Preston, 0.80 for Reading.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 478 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win54.0%

Draw27.5%

Reading to win18.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Preston lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time46.1%

Reading lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Reading ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 478 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 10Actual: 9
Reading: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 9
Reading: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.38

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Reading concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reading score0.90

Attack: Reading score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–113.7%2–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.