Championship · England · Regular Season - 40

Sheffield Utd–Wigan

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Sheffield UtdI. Ndiaye (assist: J. McAtee)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Wigan
22	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
480	Passes	367
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.89 · Wigan 0.55. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sheffield Utd 22 · Wigan 9; on target 4 and 1.
Sheffield Utd kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Davies→

4.08

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.3%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Sheffield Utd, 0.68 for Wigan.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 467 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win69.3%

Draw20.5%

Wigan to win10.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time42.9%

Wigan lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Wigan ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 467 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 14
Wigan: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 4Actual: 9
Wigan: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.89

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Wigan's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wigan score0.55

Attack: Wigan score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.2%1–013.0%1–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.