Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Bristol City–Reading

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+2'Bristol CityT. Conway
72'ReadingLucas João (assist: Andy Carroll)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Reading
18	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
479	Passes	239
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.36 · Reading 0.89. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bristol City 18 · Reading 7; on target 8 and 2.
Bristol City kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

S. Martin→

4.80

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Bristol City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Bristol City, 0.84 for Reading.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Bristol City win or draw).
These values were computed from 456 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win53.6%

Draw27.3%

Reading to win19.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bristol City lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time42.5%

Reading lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Reading ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 456 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 9Actual: 11
Reading: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 9
Reading: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.36

Attack: Bristol City score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Reading concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Reading score0.89

Attack: Reading score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–013.6%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.