Championship · England · Regular Season - 39

Preston–Blackpool

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 April 2023 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'PrestonB. Potts
26'PrestonB. Whiteman
51'PrestonT. Cannon (assist: Álvaro Fernández)
89'BlackpoolJ. Yates (assist: J. Bowler)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Blackpool
9	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	8
3	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
353	Passes	359
247	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.44 · Blackpool 0.97. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Preston 9 · Blackpool 12; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

A. Marriner→

4.08

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Preston, 0.95 for Blackpool.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 454 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win44.3%

Draw30.0%

Blackpool to win25.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Preston lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time46.0%

Blackpool lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Blackpool ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 454 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 11Actual: 10
Blackpool: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 6
Blackpool: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.44

Attack: Preston score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Blackpool concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackpool score0.97

Attack: Blackpool score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–013.0%0–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.