Championship · England · Regular Season - 32

Sheffield Utd–Middlesbrough

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 15 February 2023 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Sheffield UtdO. McBurnie (assist: Jack Robinson)
25'MiddlesbroughC. Akpom (assist: M. Forss)
48'MiddlesbroughC. Archer
74'MiddlesbroughC. Archer (assist: H. Hackney)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Utd		Middlesbrough
18	Shots	17
10	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
389	Passes	409
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Utd 1.59 · Middlesbrough 1.01. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sheffield Utd 18 · Middlesbrough 17; on target 10 and 5.

Referee

A. Marriner→

3.80

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Sheffield Utd, 1.14 for Middlesbrough.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (1X — Sheffield Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 372 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Utd to win47.8%

Draw26.7%

Middlesbrough to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time41.7%

Level at half-time41.4%

Middlesbrough lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Utd ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Middlesbrough ahead58.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 372 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Utd: at least 10Actual: 10
Middlesbrough: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Sheffield Utd: at least 5Actual: 6
Middlesbrough: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.59

Attack: Sheffield Utd score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.01

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.4%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.