1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Rizespor–Altınordu

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 May 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'AltınorduKürşad Sürmeli · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rizespor		Altınordu
25	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
460	Passes	283
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rizespor 2.32 · Altınordu 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Rizespor 25 · Altınordu 6; on target 7 and 1.
Rizespor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Z. Küçük→

5.38

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.7%: “Rizespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.32 for Rizespor, 0.90 for Altınordu.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Rizespor win or draw).
These values were computed from 307 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rizespor to win69.7%

Draw18.7%

Altınordu to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rizespor win or draw88.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.3%

X2 — draw or Altınordu win30.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rizespor lead at half-time55.7%

Level at half-time35.6%

Altınordu lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rizespor ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Altınordu ahead44.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 307 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rizespor: at least 13Actual: 21
Altınordu: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Rizespor: at least 4Actual: 3
Altınordu: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rizespor score2.32

Attack: Rizespor score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.32 goals.

How many goals Altınordu score0.90

Attack: Altınordu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rizespor's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%2–110.7%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 307 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.