1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Bodrum FK–Altınordu

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bodrum İlçe Stadı, Bodrum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'Bodrum FKK. Özer (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Altınordu
16	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	0
8	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
373	Passes	300
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.82 · Altınordu 0.99. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 16 · Altınordu 7; on target 4 and 0.
Bodrum FK kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Ü. Öztürk→

5.23

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Bodrum FK, 0.99 for Altınordu.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 292 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win56.9%

Draw24.4%

Altınordu to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw81.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Altınordu win43.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time56.7%

Level at half-time36.2%

Altınordu lead at half-time7.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level92.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or Altınordu ahead43.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 292 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 14Actual: 20
Altınordu: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 4
Altınordu: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.82

Attack: Bodrum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altınordu score0.99

Attack: Altınordu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 292 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.