1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Denizlispor–Samsunspor

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu, Denizli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'SamsunsporO. Celik (assist: A. Öztürk)
82'SamsunsporM. Fofana (assist: Barış Alıcı)
86'DenizlisporG. Süzen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Denizlispor		Samsunspor
8	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	10
1	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
348	Passes	540
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Denizlispor 0.57 · Samsunspor 2.34. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Denizlispor 8 · Samsunspor 13; on target 2 and 4.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

E. Kargın→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.1%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.57 for Denizlispor, 2.34 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (X2 — draw or Samsunspor win).
These values were computed from 290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Denizlispor to win6.2%

Draw15.7%

Samsunspor to win78.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Denizlispor lead at half-time11.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

Samsunspor lead at half-time47.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Denizlispor ahead or level52.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Samsunspor ahead88.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 290 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Denizlispor: at least 11Actual: 11
Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Denizlispor: at least 4Actual: 2
Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Denizlispor score0.57

Attack: Denizlispor score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score2.34

Attack: Samsunspor score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Denizlispor concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.34 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–215.5%0–312.1%0–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.