1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Manisa F.K.–Altınordu

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 24 April 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mumin Ozkasap Spor Tesisleri, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'AltınorduK. Alıcı (assist: R. Aydın)
27'AltınorduA. Özgün (assist: K. Alıcı)
59'Manisa F.K.Taha Şahin
68'Manisa F.K.M. Gakpa (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Altınordu
19	Shots	12
10	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
499	Passes	288
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.72 · Altınordu 1.05. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Manisa F.K. 19 · Altınordu 12; on target 10 and 5.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

G. Hasova→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Manisa F.K., 1.05 for Altınordu.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win52.7%

Draw25.6%

Altınordu to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time45.1%

Altınordu lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Altınordu ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 14Actual: 9
Altınordu: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 5Actual: 4
Altınordu: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.72

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altınordu score1.05

Attack: Altınordu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.