1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Altay–Göztepe

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 April 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'AltayMarco Paixão (penalty)
90+3'GöztepeA. Nukan (assist: I. Koybasi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Altay		Göztepe
11	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
365	Passes	357
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Altay 1.02 · Göztepe 1.38. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Altay 11 · Göztepe 9; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

M. Kalkavan→

3.58

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Altay, 1.38 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (X2 — draw or Göztepe win).
These values were computed from 280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Altay to win26.4%

Draw29.1%

Göztepe to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Altay lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time45.7%

Göztepe lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Altay ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 280 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Altay: at least 11Actual: 11
Göztepe: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Altay: at least 3Actual: 3
Göztepe: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Altay score1.02

Attack: Altay score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.38

Attack: Göztepe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altay's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–111.8%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.