1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Denizlispor–Keçiörengücü

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu, Denizli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'KeçiörengücüR. Muhammed (penalty)
45+1'KeçiörengücüP. M. Dembele (assist: B. Karadeniz)
45+3'KeçiörengücüP. M. Dembele · red card
83'KeçiörengücüR. Muhammed (penalty)
85'KeçiörengücüM. Aktaş (assist: J. Bardhi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Denizlispor		Keçiörengücü
13	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
7	Offsides	5
59%	Possession	41%
394	Passes	279
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Denizlispor 1.04 · Keçiörengücü 1.67. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Denizlispor 13 · Keçiörengücü 14; on target 3 and 6.
Denizlispor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Şen→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Denizlispor, 1.67 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (X2 — draw or Keçiörengücü win).
These values were computed from 270 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Denizlispor to win22.2%

Draw26.0%

Keçiörengücü to win51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Denizlispor lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time43.7%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Denizlispor ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 270 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Denizlispor: at least 12Actual: 6
Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Denizlispor: at least 3Actual: 5
Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Denizlispor score1.04

Attack: Denizlispor score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.67

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Denizlispor concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.6%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.