1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Altay–Altınordu

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 April 2023 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'AltınorduE. Gurluk (assist: H. Yener)
49'AltayZ. Yıldırım · red card
54'AltayM. Naderi (assist: Marco Paixão)
90+8'AltınorduA. Özgün

Match statistics

Match statistics
Altay		Altınordu
5	Shots	26
2	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	19
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	10
3	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
264	Passes	580
153	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Altay 1.59 · Altınordu 1.13. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Altay 5 · Altınordu 26; on target 2 and 8.
Altınordu kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

K. Bilgiç→

4.13

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Altay to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Altay, 1.13 for Altınordu.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — Altay win or draw).
These values were computed from 268 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Altay to win47.5%

Draw26.8%

Altınordu to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Altay lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time40.0%

Altınordu lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Altay ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Altınordu ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 268 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Altay: at least 13Actual: 13
Altınordu: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Altay: at least 4Actual: 1
Altınordu: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Altay score1.59

Attack: Altay score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altınordu score1.13

Attack: Altınordu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altay's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.