1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Altınordu–Eyüpspor

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 April 2023 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'EyüpsporUğur Demirok (penalty)
54'EyüpsporC. Alkılıç (assist: H. Akbunar)
77'AltınorduMetehan Mimaroğlu (assist: E. Gurluk)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Altınordu		Eyüpspor
17	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	0
1	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
472	Passes	344
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Altınordu 0.90 · Eyüpspor 1.48. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Altınordu 17 · Eyüpspor 8; on target 5 and 4.
Altınordu kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Erdoğan→

3.27

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Eyüpspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Altınordu, 1.48 for Eyüpspor.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (X2 — draw or Eyüpspor win).
These values were computed from 259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Altınordu to win21.5%

Draw28.1%

Eyüpspor to win50.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Altınordu lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time45.8%

Eyüpspor lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Altınordu ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Eyüpspor ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Altınordu: at least 13Actual: 13
Eyüpspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Altınordu: at least 3
Eyüpspor: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Altınordu score0.90

Attack: Altınordu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.48

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–113.1%0–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.