1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Beykoz Anadolu–Denizlispor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 April 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: 15 Temmuz Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Beykoz AnadoluE. Akdağ (assist: M. Demirci)
59'Beykoz AnadoluO. Papaker (assist: M. Demirci)
69'Beykoz AnadoluA. Yahaya (assist: M. Coşkun)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beykoz Anadolu		Denizlispor
18	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
449	Passes	555
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beykoz Anadolu 1.68 · Denizlispor 0.99. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Beykoz Anadolu 18 · Denizlispor 12; on target 5 and 3.
Denizlispor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Kayatepe→

3.38

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “Beykoz Anadolu to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Beykoz Anadolu, 0.99 for Denizlispor.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Beykoz Anadolu win or draw).
These values were computed from 255 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beykoz Anadolu to win53.2%

Draw25.9%

Denizlispor to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

Denizlispor lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Beykoz Anadolu ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Denizlispor ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 255 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 13Actual: 11
Denizlispor: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 4Actual: 3
Denizlispor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score1.68

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Denizlispor concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Denizlispor score0.99

Attack: Denizlispor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–010.8%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.