1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Altınordu–Denizlispor

5–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 March 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'DenizlisporÖ. Şişmanoğlu (assist: G. Süzen)
11'AltınorduKürşad Sürmeli (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)
16'AltınorduA. Özgün (assist: K. Aktas)
43'DenizlisporO. Derici
64'AltınorduA. Özgün (assist: Ahmet İlhan Özek)
70'AltınorduA. Özgün (assist: Metehan Mimaroğlu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Altınordu		Denizlispor
16	Shots	15
9	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	6
2	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
372	Passes	481
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Altınordu 1.44 · Denizlispor 1.07. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Altınordu 16 · Denizlispor 15; on target 9 and 6.
Denizlispor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

V. Bayarslan→

3.70

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Altınordu to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Altınordu, 1.07 for Denizlispor.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (1X — Altınordu win or draw).
These values were computed from 242 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Altınordu to win45.1%

Draw28.4%

Denizlispor to win26.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Altınordu lead at half-time22.9%

Level at half-time44.4%

Denizlispor lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Altınordu ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.6%

X2 — level or Denizlispor ahead77.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 242 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Altınordu: at least 12Actual: 14
Denizlispor: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Altınordu: at least 4Actual: 8
Denizlispor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Altınordu score1.44

Attack: Altınordu score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Denizlispor concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Denizlispor score1.07

Attack: Denizlispor score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Altınordu concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.9%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.