1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Denizlispor–Boluspor

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 March 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu, Denizli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'DenizlisporO. Yılmaz (assist: G. Süzen)
73'BolusporD. Ndlovu (assist: B. Yıldız)
90+2'BolusporG. Alsan

Match statistics

Match statistics
Denizlispor		Boluspor
13	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
5	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
404	Passes	382
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Denizlispor 1.13 · Boluspor 1.38. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Denizlispor 13 · Boluspor 18; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

Ç. Altay→

4.43

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “Denizlispor to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Denizlispor, 1.38 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Denizlispor to win29.6%

Draw28.7%

Boluspor to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Denizlispor lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time45.2%

Boluspor lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Denizlispor ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Denizlispor: at least 13Actual: 16
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Denizlispor: at least 4Actual: 7
Boluspor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Denizlispor score1.13

Attack: Denizlispor score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.38

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Denizlispor concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.3%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.