1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Samsunspor–Bandırmaspor

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 13 March 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'BandırmasporG. Koutroumpis · red card
32'SamsunsporA. Sağat (penalty)
71'SamsunsporS. Picinciol (own goal)
74'BandırmasporC. Soukou · red card
80'SamsunsporM. Fofana (assist: Y. Gültekin)
85'Samsunspor

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Bandırmaspor
25	Shots	1
12	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
8	Corners	0
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
547	Passes	329
466	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 2.02 · Bandırmaspor 0.79. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Samsunspor 25 · Bandırmaspor 1; on target 12 and 1.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

K. Bilgiç→

4.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Samsunspor, 0.79 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Samsunspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 225 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win66.5%

Draw21.3%

Bandırmaspor to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 1–0

Samsunspor lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time43.9%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Samsunspor ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Samsunspor: at least 14Actual: 7
Bandırmaspor: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Samsunspor: at least 4
Bandırmaspor: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score2.02

Attack: Samsunspor score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score0.79

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.7%1–011.5%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.