Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

SV Elversberg–Bayern München

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Bayern MünchenL. Karl (assist: H. Kane)
61'SV ElversbergM. Krattenmacher (assist: Noah Darvich)
72'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: A. Pavlović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Bayern München
5	Shots	28
1	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
28%	Possession	72%
321	Passes	823
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots SV Elversberg 5 · Bayern München 28; on target 1 and 6.
Bayern München kept the ball more (72%).

Announced lineup

SV Elversberg

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: V. Wagner

Starting XI

N. Kristofgoalkeeper
L. Güntherdefender
M. Rohrdefender
L. Pinckertdefender
J. Gyamerahdefender
Ł. Porębamidfielder
F. Keidelmidfielder
William Cole Campbellmidfielder
Francis-Ikechukwu Onyekamidfielder
L. Petkovmidfielder
D. Mokwaforward

Substitutes

A. Condé
F. Le Joncour

Unavailable players

SV Elversberg

L. Seifertout · Ankle Injury
T. Zimmerschiedout · Back Injury

Bayern München

T. Buchmannout · Knee Injury
S. Gnabrydoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Sascha Stegemann→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.