Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

RB Leipzig–Hamburger SV

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'RB LeipzigT. Gomis (assist: E. Banzuzi)
28'RB LeipzigA. Nusa
72'RB LeipzigW. Orbán (assist: A. Nusa)
74'RB LeipzigC. Nkunku (assist: A. Nusa)
77'RB LeipzigRomulo Cardoso

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		Hamburger SV
19	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
622	Passes	350
555	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.43 · Hamburger SV 1.02. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots RB Leipzig 19 · Hamburger SV 10; on target 6 and 4.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (64%).

Announced lineup

RB Leipzig

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: M. Demichelis

Starting XI

M. Vandevoordtgoalkeeper
D. Raumdefender
C. Lukebadefender
W. Orbándefender
B. Henrichsdefender
A. Ouedraogomidfielder
E. Banzuzimidfielder
N. El Aynaouimidfielder
A. Nusaforward
T. Gomisforward
B. Grudaforward

Substitutes

A. MaksimoviÄ
C. Nkunku

Unavailable players

RB Leipzig

C. Baumgartnerout · Thigh Injury
R. Reitzout · Muscle Injury

Hamburger SV

A. Rossing-Lelesiitout · Ankle Injury
K. Amoakoout · illness
S. Bornauwout · Muscle Injury
A. Sambi Lokongadoubtful · Back Injury
M. Muheimdoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Florian Badstubner→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.2%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.65 for RB Leipzig, 1.05 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 88.7% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,249 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win72.2%

Draw16.6%

Hamburger SV to win11.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 559 of 731 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Hamburger SV

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: M. Polzin

Starting XI

Daniel Heuer Fernandesgoalkeeper
S. Nandjadefender
J. Torunarighadefender
N. Capaldodefender
D. Møller Wolfemidfielder
N. Rembergmidfielder
A. Sambi Lokongamidfielder
Z. El Ouahdimidfielder
A. Grønbækmidfielder
P. Dakamidfielder
Y. Poulsenforward

Substitutes

B. Jatta
B. Nadir
Fábio Vieira
L. Lemke
M. Adeline
Otto Emerson Stange
S. Tangvik
T. Moffi
W. Omari

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:44.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RB Leipzig win or draw88.7%

12 — any result other than a draw83.4%

X2 — draw or Hamburger SV win27.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

RB Leipzig lead at half-time56.0%

Level at half-time33.8%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.2%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead44.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1249 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 11
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 6Actual: 8
Hamburger SV: at least 2Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals73.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 62.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.43

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.02

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.0%3–18.9%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1249 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.