Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

1. FC Köln–Werder Bremen

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'1. FC KölnL. Maina (assist: E. Skhiri)
69'Werder BremenN. Füllkrug

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Werder Bremen
15	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
464	Passes	530
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.85 · Werder Bremen 1.33. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Köln 15 · Werder Bremen 14; on target 6 and 5.

Announced lineup

1. FC Köln

Formation: 4-5-1 · Manager: René Wagner

Starting XI

M. Schwäbegoalkeeper
G. Mensahdefender
L. Lochoshvilidefender
Jahmai Simpson-Puseydefender
A. Castro-Montesdefender
L. Mainamidfielder
M. Mooremidfielder
E. Skhirimidfielder
T. Kraußmidfielder
M. Bültermidfielder
T. Dallingaforward

Substitutes

B. Sosa
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson

Unavailable players

1. FC Köln

T. Dallingaout · illness
T. Hubersout · Knee Injury
L. Waldschmidtdoubtful · Muscle Injury
S. El Maladoubtful · illness
S. Sebulonsendoubtful · Muscle Injury

Werder Bremen

F. Aguout · Calf Injury
J. Njinmahout · Thigh Injury
J. Stageout · Muscle Injury
K. Toppout · Knee Injury
M. Weiserout · Knee Injury
S. Lynenout · Hip Injury
E. Dinkçidoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for 1. FC Köln, 1.37 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,248 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win46.8%

Draw24.9%

Werder Bremen to win28.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler

Werder Bremen

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: D. Thioune

Starting XI

K. Heingoalkeeper
O. Demandefender
M. Friedldefender
A. Pieperdefender
Arthurdefender
Y. Regeermidfielder
L. Reismidfielder
M. Grüllmidfielder
Chuky San Josémidfielder
E. Dinkçimidfielder
N. Füllkrugforward

Substitutes

A. Schlager
C. Itten
Dariusz Stalmach
M. Weiser
Mick Schmetgens
N. Stark
O. Wojcik
P. Erevbenagie
Salim Amani Musah

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 16:42.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln win or draw71.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.1%

X2 — draw or Werder Bremen win53.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time41.7%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1248 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 11
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 5Actual: 8
Werder Bremen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 62.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.85

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.33

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.2%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1248 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 104 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.