Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

FC Augsburg–Bayer Leverkusen

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Bayer LeverkusenChristian Kofane (assist: Edmond Tapsoba)
50'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: Hennes Behrens)
55'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: F. Rieder)
89'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: Malik Tillman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Bayer Leverkusen
8	Shots	30
5	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	21
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	14
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
351	Passes	593
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.40 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.95. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Augsburg 8 · Bayer Leverkusen 30; on target 5 and 5.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

FC Augsburg

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: M. Baum

Starting XI

F. Dahmengoalkeeper
C. Brackelmanndefender
C. Matsimadefender
Noahkai Kai Daniel Banksdefender
Hennes Behrensmidfielder
F. Riedermidfielder
H. Massengomidfielder
M. Wolfmidfielder
R. Fellhauermidfielder
A. Ibrahimovićmidfielder
M. Gregoritschforward

Substitutes

A. Claude-Maurice

Unavailable players

FC Augsburg

A. Kadeout · injury
F. Sakarout · Ankle Injury
S. Mounieout · injury
S. Susoout · Muscle Injury
T. Breithauptout · injury

Bayer Leverkusen

K. Eichhornout · illness
M. Culbreathout · injury
N. Tellaout · injury
E. Ben Seghirdoubtful · Thigh Injury
G. Douedoubtful · injury
M. Terrierdoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for FC Augsburg, 2.04 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,243 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win25.1%

Draw23.1%

Bayer Leverkusen to win51.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Bayer Leverkusen

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Carles Martínez

Starting XI

Mark Flekkengoalkeeper
Miguel Gutiérrezdefender
Facundo Medinadefender
Edmond Tapsobadefender
Jarell Quansahdefender
Aleix Garcíamidfielder
Ezequiel Fernándezmidfielder
Afonso Moreiramidfielder
I. Mazamidfielder
Moussa Diabymidfielder
Christian Kofaneforward

Substitutes

G. Doue
J. Hofmann
Janis Blaswich
Loïc Badé
Lucas Vázquez
M. Terrier
Malik Tillman
Patrik Schick
Robert Andrich

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:44.

Both teams to score69.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Augsburg win or draw48.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Bayer Leverkusen win74.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Augsburg lead at half-time23.0%

Level at half-time36.6%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time40.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level59.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead77.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1243 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 6
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 2
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 14

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals68.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.40

Attack: FC Augsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.95

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.2%1–110.2%2–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1243 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.