Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

Borussia Dortmund–SC Paderborn 07

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Borussia DortmundFábio Silva (assist: S. Guirassy)
80'Borussia DortmundF. Nmecha (assist: M. Beier)
89'Borussia DortmundF. Nmecha (assist: M. Sabitzer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		SC Paderborn 07
14	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
553	Passes	459
464	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Borussia Dortmund 14 · SC Paderborn 07 10; on target 8 and 0.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Borussia Dortmund

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: N. Kovač

Starting XI

G. Kobelgoalkeeper
N. Schlotterbeckdefender
W. Antondefender
Kouakou Joane Gadoudefender
D. Svenssonmidfielder
J. Bellinghammidfielder
J. Veermanmidfielder
J. Ryersonmidfielder
Fábio Silvamidfielder
E. Nwanerimidfielder
S. Guirassyforward

Substitutes

A. Meyer
C. Chukwuemeka

Unavailable players

Borussia Dortmund

E. Canout · Knee Injury
F. Maneout · Muscle Injury
G. Konstanteliasout · Knee Injury
J. Lermaout · Muscle Injury
K. Karetsasout · Health problems
M. Kabaout · injury
S. Inacioout · red-card suspension

SC Paderborn 07

L. Eickelout · Back Injury
N. Awortwie-Grantout · Knee Injury
S. Klaasout · Muscle Injury
S. Michelout · Muscle Injury
T. Gayretout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.