Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

SC Freiburg–Borussia Mönchengladbach

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'SC FreiburgY. Engelhardt (assist: D. Scherhant)
29'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: M. Ginter)
52'Borussia MönchengladbachT. Kleindienst · red card
77'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: J. Makengo)
79'SC FreiburgY. Engelhardt (assist: M. Ginter)
86'SC Freiburg

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Borussia Mönchengladbach
19	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
545	Passes	338
490	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.85 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots SC Freiburg 19 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 5; on target 9 and 0.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (60%).

Announced lineup

SC Freiburg

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: J. Schuster

Starting XI

M. Backhausgoalkeeper
J. Makengodefender
P. Lienhartdefender
M. Ginterdefender
P. Treudefender
Y. Engelhardtmidfielder
M. Eggesteinmidfielder
D. Scherhantmidfielder
Y. Suzukimidfielder
J. Bestemidfielder
I. Matanovićforward

Substitutes

Berkay Yilmaz
C. Günter

Unavailable players

SC Freiburg

P. Osterhageout · Muscle Injury

Borussia Mönchengladbach

D. Hashiokaout · Neck Injury
E. Leopoldout · Knee Injury
J. Castropout · Shoulder Injury
N. Kuhnout · Muscle Injury
Y. Konoplyaout · Knee Injury
Z. Unoout · Lacking Match Fitness

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for SC Freiburg, 1.16 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,243 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win56.9%

Draw23.0%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win20.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Cyriaque Kalou Irié

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: E. Polanski

Starting XI

M. Nicolasgoalkeeper
D. Herolddefender
K. Diksdefender
K. Itakuradefender
J. Scallydefender
R. Hackmidfielder
K. Stögermidfielder
P. Sandermidfielder
F. Honoratmidfielder
T. Kleindienstforward
H. Bolinforward

Substitutes

D. Batz
F. C. Chiarodia
F. Neuhaus
I. Lidberg
J. Leszczyński
L. Ullrich
M. Nguefack
S. Machino
W. Mohya

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 13:44.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Freiburg win or draw79.9%

12 — any result other than a draw77.0%

X2 — draw or Borussia Mönchengladbach win43.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Freiburg lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time38.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1243 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 7
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 6
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.85

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.19

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1243 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.