Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

Union Berlin–FC Schalke 04

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'FC Schalke 04R. Gosens
46'FC Schalke 04A. Aouchiche (assist: J. Adamu)
90+6'Union BerlinT. Skarke (assist: T. Rothe)
90+13'FC Schalke 04M. Wöber (assist: Hwang Hee-Chan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		FC Schalke 04
20	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	10
17	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
505	Passes	265
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.60 · FC Schalke 04 1.01. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Union Berlin 20 · FC Schalke 04 19; on target 8 and 10.
Union Berlin kept the ball more (66%).

Announced lineup

Union Berlin

Formation: 4-1-2-1-2 · Manager: M. Lustrinelli

Starting XI

F. Ronnowgoalkeeper
T. Rothedefender
F. Uduokhaidefender
L. Querfelddefender
J. Juranovićdefender
A. Kemleinmidfielder
Livan Burcumidfielder
M. Aebischermidfielder
R. Khediramidfielder
E. Latte Lathforward
Jeong Woo-Yeongforward

Substitutes

A. Schäfer
C. Trimmel

Unavailable players

Union Berlin

A. Ilicout · illness
A. Markgrafout · Knee Injury
K. Imeriout · Thigh Injury
M. Friedrichout · injury
O. Burkeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Nsokiout · Muscle Injury

FC Schalke 04

E. Hojlundout · Heel Injury
R. Schallenbergout · red-card suspension
T. Kalasout · Lacking Match Fitness
A. Gantenbeindoubtful · Ankle Injury
B. Lasmedoubtful · Calf Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Union Berlin, 1.43 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,242 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win40.7%

Draw26.1%

FC Schalke 04 to win33.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

FC Schalke 04

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: M. Muslić

Starting XI

L. Kariusgoalkeeper
H. Kuruçaydefender
N. Katićdefender
T. Beckerdefender
R. Gosensmidfielder
S. Tanakamidfielder
S. El-Faouzimidfielder
J. Adamumidfielder
A. Aouchichemidfielder
D. Ljubičićmidfielder
K. Karamanforward

Substitutes

E. Džeko
Hwang Hee-Chan
J. Bachmann
J. Dina Ebimbe
K. Müller
L. Vozar
M. Ayhan
M. Wöber
Vitalie Becker

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:44.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Union Berlin win or draw66.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or FC Schalke 04 win59.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time48.5%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time18.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level81.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.5%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1242 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 11
FC Schalke 04: at least 7Actual: 10

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 7Actual: 4
FC Schalke 04: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (61.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.60

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.01

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.7%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1242 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.