Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

Hamburger SV–FSV Mainz 05

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'FSV Mainz 05S. Becker (assist: K. Sano)
41'FSV Mainz 05P. Mwene (assist: S. Becker)
48'FSV Mainz 05P. Tietz (assist: S. Becker)
83'FSV Mainz 05P. Tietz (assist: Lee Jae-Sung)
90+1'FSV Mainz 05R. Königsdörffer (assist: P. Mwene)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		FSV Mainz 05
8	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	14
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
421	Passes	350
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 1.49 · FSV Mainz 05 1.55. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Hamburger SV 8 · FSV Mainz 05 17; on target 1 and 8.

Unavailable players

Hamburger SV

A. Rossing-Lelesiitout · Ankle Injury
M. Muheimout · Muscle Injury
W. Omariout · Personal Reasons

FSV Mainz 05

D. Kohrout · Foot Injury
E. Martelout · Knee Injury
P. Nebelout · Muscle Injury
Silasout · Broken shinbone
B. Hollerbachdoubtful · Lacking Match Fitness

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.69

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Hamburger SV to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Hamburger SV, 1.46 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,240 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win33.0%

Draw27.4%

FSV Mainz 05 to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hamburger SV win or draw60.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or FSV Mainz 05 win67.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Hamburger SV lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time40.8%

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time32.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level67.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or FSV Mainz 05 ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1240 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 14
FSV Mainz 05: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 4
FSV Mainz 05: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (61.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.49

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.55

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.5%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1240 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.