Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

FC Schalke 04–Bayern München

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 11%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Bayern München
4	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	11
0	Offsides	1
17%	Possession	83%
182	Passes	911
108	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 0.60 · Bayern München 3.88. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 4 · Bayern München 15; on target 1 and 5.
Bayern München kept the ball more (83%).

Unavailable players

FC Schalke 04

A. Gantenbeinout · Ankle Injury
B. Lasmeout · Calf Injury
E. Hojlundout · Heel Injury
R. Schallenbergout · red-card suspension
T. Kalasout · Lacking Match Fitness
K. Karamandoubtful · Hip Injury

Bayern München

S. Gnabryout · Muscle Injury
T. Buchmannout · Knee Injury
J. Musialadoubtful · Health problems

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

R. Schroder→

4.50

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.5%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for FC Schalke 04, 3.27 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 94.3% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,239 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win5.7%

Draw10.8%

Bayern München to win83.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw16.5%

12 — any result other than a draw89.2%

X2 — draw or Bayern München win94.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time2.8%

Level at half-time26.4%

Bayern München lead at half-time70.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level29.2%

12 — not level at half-time73.6%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead97.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1239 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 7Actual: 5
Bayern München: at least 6Actual: 12

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 2
Bayern München: at least 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals80.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 43 of 53 predictions were correct (81.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score0.60

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score3.88

Attack: Bayern München score 84% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 67% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.88 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–39.2%1–39.0%0–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1239 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.