Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

Bayer Leverkusen–Union Berlin

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Bayer LeverkusenEzequiel Fernández (assist: Miguel Gutiérrez)
28'Bayer LeverkusenFacundo Medina (assist: Miguel Gutiérrez)
48'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: Jarell Quansah)
66'Bayer LeverkusenI. Maza (assist: Patrik Schick)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Union Berlin
21	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
579	Passes	324
521	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.25 · Union Berlin 1.03. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 21 · Union Berlin 5; on target 10 and 0.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (64%).

Unavailable players

Bayer Leverkusen

Eliesse Ben Seghirout · Thigh Injury
G. Doueout · injury
K. Eichhornout · illness
M. Culbreathout · injury
Martin Terrierout · Muscle Injury
N. Tellaout · injury

Union Berlin

A. Ilicout · illness
A. Markgrafout · Knee Injury
M. Friedrichout · injury
O. Burkeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
S. Nsokiout · Muscle Injury
F. Ronnowdoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

R. Braun→

4.67

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.7%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.05 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win66.7%

Draw19.3%

Union Berlin to win14.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw86.0%

12 — any result other than a draw80.7%

X2 — draw or Union Berlin win33.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time63.3%

Level at half-time29.1%

Union Berlin lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time70.9%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead36.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 11
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 5Actual: 11
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.25

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.03

Attack: Union Berlin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–09.3%1–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1234 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.