Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

1899 Hoffenheim–Borussia Dortmund

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'1899 HoffenheimL. Avdullahu (assist: V. Coufal)
54'1899 HoffenheimT. Lemperle (assist: A. Daghim)
61'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: W. Anton)
66'Borussia DortmundFábio Silva (assist: S. Guirassy)
86'Borussia DortmundA. Hajdari (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Borussia Dortmund
18	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
498	Passes	335
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.47 · Borussia Dortmund 1.74. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 18 · Borussia Dortmund 11; on target 6 and 4.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

1899 Hoffenheim

A. Prassout · Muscle Injury
F. Asllaniout · injury

Borussia Dortmund

E. Canout · Knee Injury
G. Konstanteliasout · Knee Injury
J. Lermaout · Muscle Injury
J. Lermaout · Muscle Injury
M. Kabaout · injury
N. Schlotterbeckout · Ankle Injury
R. Bensebainiout · Ribs Injury
S. Inacioout · red-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

M. Jollenbeck→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “1899 Hoffenheim to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.71 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win36.2%

Draw24.7%

Borussia Dortmund to win39.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Both teams to score69.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw60.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or Borussia Dortmund win63.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time37.6%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 13
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 10
Borussia Dortmund: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.47

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.74

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–29.2%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1234 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.