Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

SC Freiburg–Werder Bremen

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'SC FreiburgY. Suzuki (assist: J. Beste)
45'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: M. Ginter)
48'SC FreiburgY. Suzuki
55'SC FreiburgY. Suzuki (assist: I. Matanović)
76'Werder BremenDariusz Stalmach (assist: M. Grüll)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Werder Bremen
19	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
453	Passes	375
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.72 · Werder Bremen 1.18. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 19 · Werder Bremen 8; on target 5 and 3.

Unavailable players

SC Freiburg

F. Muslijaout · Knee Injury
P. Osterhageout · Muscle Injury
R. Yamamotoout · injury

Werder Bremen

Dariusz Stalmachout · Shoulder Injury
F. Aguout · Calf Injury
K. Toppout · Knee Injury
M. Weiserout · Knee Injury
O. Wojcikout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

3.29

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for SC Freiburg, 1.11 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,231 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win52.3%

Draw25.2%

Werder Bremen to win22.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Freiburg win or draw77.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Werder Bremen win47.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

SC Freiburg lead at half-time41.8%

Level at half-time40.6%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time17.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level82.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead58.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1231 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 11
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 6
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (61.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.72

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.18

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1231 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.