Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

Borussia Dortmund–Hamburger SV

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: K. Karetsas)
45+1'Borussia DortmundS. Bornauw (own goal)
77'Borussia DortmundS. Inacio · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		Hamburger SV
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
538	Passes	419
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 2.41 · Hamburger SV 0.89. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 20 · Hamburger SV 8; on target 6 and 3.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (56%).

Unavailable players

Borussia Dortmund

E. Canout · Knee Injury
M. Kabaout · injury
N. Schlotterbeckout · Ankle Injury
R. Bensebainiout · Ribs Injury

Hamburger SV

A. Rossing-Lelesiitout · Ankle Injury
M. Muheimout · Muscle Injury
T. Moffiout · not in squad
W. Omariout · Personal Reasons

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

4.58

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.91 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 88.6% (1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,230 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win70.3%

Draw18.4%

Hamburger SV to win11.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 559 of 731 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time35.9%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1230 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 11Actual: 13
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 6Actual: 3
Hamburger SV: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.41

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score0.89

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.6%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.