Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

SV Elversberg–Bayer Leverkusen

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'SV ElversbergL. Petkov (assist: Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka)
9'SV ElversbergWilliam Cole Campbell
46'SV ElversbergD. Mokwa (assist: L. Petkov)
77'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: I. Maza)
90+1'Bayer LeverkusenChristian Kofane

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Bayer Leverkusen
11	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
293	Passes	582
212	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots SV Elversberg 11 · Bayer Leverkusen 21; on target 6 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (67%).

Unavailable players

SV Elversberg

L. Seifertout · Ankle Injury
T. Zimmerschiedout · Back Injury
F. Schmahldoubtful · Knock

Bayer Leverkusen

Eliesse Ben Seghirout · Thigh Injury
K. Eichhornout · illness
M. Culbreathout · injury
Martin Terrierout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Robert Hartmann, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 0 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

18	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.