Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

FSV Mainz 05–SC Paderborn 07

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		SC Paderborn 07
21	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
461	Passes	462
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots FSV Mainz 05 21 · SC Paderborn 07 10; on target 4 and 0.

Unavailable players

FSV Mainz 05

B. Hollerbachout · Lacking Match Fitness
E. Martelout · Knee Injury
P. Nebelout · Muscle Injury
Silasout · Broken shinbone

SC Paderborn 07

L. Eickelout · Back Injury
N. Awortwie-Grantout · Knee Injury
S. Klaasout · Groin Injury
S. Michelout · Muscle Injury
T. Gayretout · Knee Injury
M. Hoffmeierdoubtful · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:11.

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.57

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 0 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

8	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.