Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 12

Fatih Karagümrük–Sivasspor

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 November 2023 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Fatih KaragümrükV. Eysseric
79'Fatih KaragümrükGüven Yalçın (assist: O. Shukurov)
85'Fatih KaragümrükS. Dursun (assist: C. Keles)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fatih Karagümrük		Sivasspor
13	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
445	Passes	487
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fatih Karagümrük 1.51 · Sivasspor 1.30. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Fatih Karagümrük 13 · Sivasspor 13; on target 7 and 3.

Unavailable players

Fatih Karagümrük

F. Paolettiout · Muscle Injury
K. Lasagnadoubtful · Muscle Injury

Sivasspor

S. Camaraout · Ankle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:04.

Referee

M. Erdoğan→

3.71

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “Fatih Karagümrük to win”. Second comes “Sivasspor to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.13 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 426 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fatih Karagümrük to win43.1%

Draw28.3%

Sivasspor to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Fatih Karagümrük lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time39.4%

Sivasspor lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Fatih Karagümrük ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 426 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 13Actual: 16
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 4

Corners

Fatih Karagümrük: at least 4Actual: 5
Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fatih Karagümrük score1.51

Attack: Fatih Karagümrük score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score1.30

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fatih Karagümrük's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.