Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 4

Stade Brestois 29–Paris Saint Germain

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Paris Saint GermainFerran Torres (assist: O. Dembele)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Paris Saint Germain
16	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
428	Passes	652
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.02 · Paris Saint Germain 1.99. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 16 · Paris Saint Germain 15; on target 4 and 7.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (59%).

Announced lineup

Stade Brestois 29

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Julien Lachuer

Starting XI

E. Selvikgoalkeeper
B. Lockodefender
G. Llorisdefender
R. Le Guendefender
K. Laladefender
H. Magnettimidfielder
J. Chotardmidfielder
P. Mboupmidfielder
K. Doumbiamidfielder
G. Versinimidfielder
L. Ajorqueforward

Substitutes

D. N´Guessan
Ibrahim Yayiya Kante

Unavailable players

Stade Brestois 29

B. Chardonnetout · Calf Injury
M. Baldeout · injury
M. Diambouout · Ankle Injury
N. Edjoumaout · Muscle Injury
R. Cagnonout · Shoulder Injury

Paris Saint Germain

A. Longoniout · Muscle Injury
I. Zabarnyiout · Coach's decision
S. Mayuluout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Willy Delajod→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.7%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for Stade Brestois 29, 2.72 for Paris Saint Germain.
The highest double chance value is 92.2% (X2 — draw or Paris Saint Germain win).
These values were computed from 1,332 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win7.8%

Draw14.6%

Paris Saint Germain to win77.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Paris Saint Germain

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Luis Enrique

Starting XI

M. Safonovgoalkeeper
N. Mendesdefender
W. Pachodefender
Marquinhosdefender
A. Hakimidefender
J. Nevesmidfielder
Vitinhamidfielder
W. Zaïre-Emerymidfielder
K. Kvaratskheliaforward
Ferran Torresforward
O. Dembeleforward

Substitutes

Beraldo
D. Doué
Fabián Ruiz
L. Chevalier
L. Digne
L. Hernández
M. Akliouche
M. Godts
Pedro Fernández

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw22.3%

12 — any result other than a draw85.4%

X2 — draw or Paris Saint Germain win92.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time12.4%

Level at half-time36.1%

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time51.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level48.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Paris Saint Germain ahead87.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1332 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 10Actual: 13
Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 3Actual: 3
Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals70.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.02

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score1.99

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.6%0–39.8%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1332 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.