Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 4

Lille–Estac Troyes

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'LilleTiago Santos (assist: D. Bakwa)
90+3'LilleE. Mbappé (assist: M. Kjærgaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Estac Troyes
13	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
627	Passes	340
558	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 2.68 · Estac Troyes 0.93. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Lille 13 · Estac Troyes 8; on target 6 and 1.
Lille kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

Lille

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Davide Ancelotti

Starting XI

B. Özergoalkeeper
R. Perrauddefender
Alexsandro Ribeirodefender
N. Ngoydefender
Tiago Santosdefender
N. Bentalebmidfielder
N. Mukaumidfielder
B. Önalmidfielder
H. Haraldssonmidfielder
D. Bakwamidfielder
A. Uedaforward

Substitutes

B. Andre
C. Verdonk

Unavailable players

Lille

H. Igamaneout · Knee Injury

Estac Troyes

A. Phliponeauout · Knee Injury
I. Bouraout · injury
M. Ifnaouiout · injury
P. Gozziout · Muscle Injury
Y. Titiout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Romain Lissorgue→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.6%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.16 for Lille, 0.86 for Estac Troyes.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Lille win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,330 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win67.6%

Draw20.1%

Estac Troyes to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Estac Troyes

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: S. Dumont

Starting XI

P. Beachgoalkeeper
A. Ouzenadjidefender
M. Diazdefender
A. Monfraydefender
L. Maronnierdefender
M. Diopmidfielder
A. Millemidfielder
H. Picardmidfielder
D. Karimmidfielder
K. Diawaramidfielder
J. Le Douaronforward

Substitutes

H. Konaté
I. Gomis
I. Soukouna
Noah Donkor
R. Ripart
T. Nkada
Y. Kone

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 13:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lille win or draw87.7%

12 — any result other than a draw79.9%

X2 — draw or Estac Troyes win32.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lille lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time42.3%

Estac Troyes lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lille ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Estac Troyes ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1330 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lille: at least 11Actual: 11
Estac Troyes: at least 8Actual: 20

Corners

Lille: at least 4Actual: 2
Estac Troyes: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score2.68

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes concede 85% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Estac Troyes score0.93

Attack: Estac Troyes score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.8%1–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1330 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 41 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.