Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 4

Paris FC–Lyon

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Lyon
6	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
590	Passes	459
534	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.47 · Lyon 1.42. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Paris FC 6 · Lyon 5; on target 4 and 1.
Paris FC kept the ball more (56%).

Announced lineup

Paris FC

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: L. Rosenior

Starting XI

K. Trappgoalkeeper
H. Traorédefender
D. Coppoladefender
S. Cherguidefender
L. Koleoshomidfielder
P. Lees-Meloumidfielder
M. Lopezmidfielder
A. Camaramidfielder
P. Pagismidfielder
I. Kebbalmidfielder
L. Sinayokoforward

Substitutes

E. Zabi
J. Ikone

Unavailable players

Paris FC

E. Mbembaout · not in squad
N. Sanguiout · injury
Otavioout · injury
T. De Smetout · not in squad
J. Ikonedoubtful · Hamstring Injury

Lyon

A. Gomes Rodriguezout · not in squad
A. Hamdaniout · not in squad
J. Duranvilleout · Muscle Injury
M. Ouedraogoout · not in squad
N. Kamaraout · not in squad
R. Himbertout · not in squad
S. Kangoout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:10.

Referee

Jerome Brisard→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “Lyon to win” at 36.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Paris FC, 1.54 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,326 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win37.5%

Draw25.8%

Lyon to win36.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Lyon

Formation: 4-3-2-1 · Manager: Paulo Fonseca

Starting XI

Dominik Greifgoalkeeper
Abner Viniciusdefender
M. Niakhatedefender
Felix Bacherdefender
Zachary Athekamedefender
Corentin Tolissomidfielder
Tyler Mortonmidfielder
Mads Bidstrupmidfielder
P. Sulcmidfielder
Ernest Nuamahmidfielder
Loïs Opendaforward

Substitutes

Clinton Mata
K. Merah
K. Nakamura
Kaïl Boudache
N. Tagliafico
Noah Nartey
R. Kluivert
Rémy Descamps
Tanner Tessmann

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris FC win or draw63.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Lyon win62.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris FC lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

Lyon lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Lyon ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1326 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 10Actual: 19
Lyon: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 4
Lyon: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.47

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.42

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1326 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.